Stats of Facts?

One of my most controversial takes is that statistics aren't real. When I was watching Star Wars, at one point c3po was giving the odds of surviving an asteroid field much to Han Solo's irritation.

But Han had a reason to be angry, the predictability of his attempt can only be compared if you assume that the former pilots had the same factors as Han. Statistics are so much more complicated than most people realize, to the point where the same statistics can be used to present both sides of an argument.

Elon has no possible way of saying xAi has a 10% likelihood of success. It is not possible to have data about something that does not exist. It rings as hollow as saying that self driving will be here next quarter. When experts all across the field agree that artificial general intelligence is a way off, and that our current methods will not get there, Elon still promises Mars for a bit of extra cash...

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/xai-all-hands-agi-superintelligence-funding-success-optimus-space

Consequences

It's funny how things don't turn out how we intended. First the US blocks chip production from China so they start producing their own chips. Then China starts producing ai models that use less compute resources, and now people are smuggling in Nvidia chips.

Trying to limit your competitors isn't the way to win, and it's clearly not working.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh0CrcPt3OM

6x Productivity Gap

The biggest question about ai productivity is not if it will work, it's what incentives will be in place.

Warren Buffett emphasizes the power of incentives with quotes like, "If you have a dumb incentive system, you get dumb outcomes," and, "Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome."

If employers do not properly incentivise increased productivity, employees will take those productivity gains and run with it. Americans could very much use a better work life balance, but if innovation isn't incentivised, it will be crushed.

If increased productivity only leads to increased work load, why would a top performer spread their techniques?

Business owners, ask yourself what outcome you want, and figure out how to incentivise to get what you want: if you don't, someone else will take your best employees.

Source: https://venturebeat.com/ai/openai-report-reveals-a-6x-productivity-gap-between-ai-power-users-and