[🔒 IP-Protected Institutional Teaser]
Exact state-space filter constants (φ_c, γ_einv, δ_einv, R_k, Θ_TVTP, β̂_Stage1) are symbolically redacted and 36 of 41 sovereign feeds are locked pending Institutional MNDA / API License.
StataNow 19.5 Audited (11/11 Assertions PASS)
Teaser Preview: 5/41 Sovereigns Unlocked | 35,424 Audited Cells
CBMT Institutional Teaser — Friction-Compression Valuation & State-Space Nowcast
Stage 1 LOCO R²_OOS
0.4909
vs. 0.1033 Legacy (CW p=0.0075)
Asymmetric Enforcement
t = −8.30***
β̂_corr (p<0.001) ≫ β̂_reg (NS)
2016–19 LOCO R²_OOS (1C)
0.5011
Zero Country FE (CW p=0.0053)
Stage 2 VIF Reduction
14.68 → 2.66
Mean VIF 1.84 | Haircut −19% to −33%
22-EM Crisis AUROC
1.0000
22/22 Accuracy (ρ_S = 0.9130***)
Provenance Audit Matrix
35,424
41 Sovereigns × 27 Yrs × 32 Series
Showcase Sovereign State-Space Trajectories (5 of 41 Jurisdictions Unlocked in Teaser)
Previewing 5 representative regimes (Brazil, India, Mexico, Turkey, United States). Full 41-country panel and monthly API feed unlocked under institutional license.
A. Out-of-Sample Realization (Î_nst^LOCO), E-Invoicing (e_inv_cov) & TVTP Crisis Risk (ξ₂)
B. Realized vs. Zero-FE Out-of-Sample Log Currency Valuation (ln V_M,it, 2000–2026)
41-Sovereign Coverage Directory (5 Teaser Unlocked / 36 Enterprise API Locked)
Prevents unauthorized scraping of the 1,107-row state-space panel while proving global breadth.
| ISO3 / Sovereign | Digital Rail / Mandate Status | 2024 e_inv_cov | Î_nst^LOCO,u | TVTP ξ₂^GF | Teaser Access Status |
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